I still chuckle when I read that phrase – reminds me of the classic bit by Firesign Theater on the album “We’re All Bozos on this Bus.” “Don’t forget to inflate your shoes,” they warned. I’m always intrigued by futurists and their predictions – its particularly fun to look back at old predictions to see how they turned out. Remember this one:
One thing about futurists you can be sure of – they will probably be wrong. Nevertheless, it is a good mental exercise to fast forward into the future and anticipate what one might do to prepare for it. The latest issue of Urban Land magazine does just that with a good piece titled “Imagining Land Use in 2063.” It is worth the read to understand how some very smart people view current and future development patterns.
There is a lemming-like characteristic in real estate development – right now the rush is “in-fill” development. This is driven by two demographic trends: the baby boomers wanting to have a more vibrant retirement and not wanting to look “old” by moving into a Del Webb community and the baby boomlet generation that seems drawn to the “hipness” of in-town living. My personal feeling is that anytime everyone is rushing into a pattern is exactly the moment we just might be getting it wrong. I think the future will look a lot like the present – sorry, yawn, boring!
Sure, there will be more density. In Nashville alone, it is anticipated that we will add a million souls over the next 25 years. We are almost out of developable land, so the only solution will be a combination of density and sprawl…kind of like what we have now. My vision is the blend: a denser urban core coupled with a series of denser village-like suburbs. We will still have acre lot subdivisions although they will not maintain their value as they have in the past. The big losers, in my opinion, will be the McMansions. They don’t make good retirement options…a lot of the condominiums we sold from 2004-2009 were to people that were tired of the “2 acre lot” out in the burbs. They don’t subdivide well and are often prohibited in their Homeowner Association covenants from allowing multiple families or generations from living there. Inflexible is a bad characteristic of any real estate.
The big challenge will be managing the growth intelligently and having the municipal good sense to efficiently use ever scarcer public funds. We had a good discussion on this topic the other night on News Channel 5: The Future of Nashville.
What do you think? Jetsons or Beverly Hillbillies?
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